The last push: parties turn to undecided voters in final week

With one week left before Malta votes, the election campaign is entering its decisive phase. Four weeks of relentless activity have brought the country to the point where the arguments have been made, the manifestos have been launched, debates have been held (with others to come) and the promises have been distributed in abundance. What remains now is the final push for votes in what is shaping up to be a contest centred on two competing narratives – stability on one side and change on the other.

The campaign has been intense, multifaceted and at times repetitive. The major political parties have saturated the country with proposals, interviews, rallies, social media campaigns and direct appeals to voters, while the smaller parties have struggled to gain visibility in an electoral system that leaves them with little room for manoeuvre.

Malta’s electoral structure remains one of the greatest obstacles for alternative parties. The country is divided into 13 districts, each electing five candidates, and for a small party to secure representation it must obtain enough concentrated support to reach a quota in at least one district. This has always been a difficult task and remains so today.

Yet smaller parties continue to matter, even if they are unlikely to win seats. Their impact is often indirect but still significant. Historically, alternative parties tend to draw more votes away from the Nationalist Party than from the Labour Party. Labour’s electoral base has traditionally shown greater loyalty and resilience, whereas voters dissatisfied with the PN are more inclined to look elsewhere or abstain altogether.

This dynamic partly explains why surveys throughout the campaign have consistently shown Labour maintaining a comfortable lead. The margin appears to be narrower than the 39,000-vote victory secured by Labour in the last general election, but the gap still looks sufficiently wide to place the governing party in a relatively strong position heading into the final week.

At the same time, Malta’s parliamentary arithmetic has become increasingly complex. Parliament is no longer necessarily limited to 65 seats. Mechanisms related to proportionality and gender balance can significantly increase the number of MPs elected.

The last legislature provided a clear example. Two Nationalist Party MPs were added through the proportionality mechanism to better reflect the national vote, while another 12 women entered parliament through the gender corrective mechanism, six from each major party. This brought the total number of MPs to 79, the largest parliament Malta has ever had.

The gender mechanism was introduced with the intention of improving female representation, which has historically been weak in Maltese politics. Yet the system remains controversial. Critics argue that it may unintentionally disadvantage female candidates during the election itself because some voters may believe women will “get in anyway” and therefore choose to vote for male candidates instead.

These issues have received relatively little attention during the campaign itself, largely because the dominant themes have been economic promises, quality of life concerns, and attempts by the parties to outbid each other with increasingly generous proposals.

Indeed, this election has become perhaps the most giveaway-oriented campaign Malta has experienced. Maltese elections have always involved promises of tax reductions, benefits and incentives, but this time the scale has reached unprecedented levels. Day after day, the electorate has been presented with new pledges touching virtually every sector – health, education, transport, energy, pensions, housing, taxation, and business.

What has stood out is not only the quantity of proposals but also the striking similarities between them. More than once, one party dismissed a proposal made by the other side only to later unveil a comparable measure itself, sometimes with minor adjustments. Accusations of copying became routine, but they also revealed how narrow the ideological distance between the two major parties has become on many bread-and-butter issues.

This convergence reflects the reality of Maltese electoral politics. Elections are rarely won through ideological confrontation. They are usually won by convincing voters which party is more capable of managing prosperity, delivering services, and maintaining economic stability.

In this context, the Nationalist Party made a significant strategic shift. Unlike in the 2017 and 2022 campaigns, corruption and governance barely featured in its messaging, if at all. Those themes had previously dominated PN attacks on Labour, particularly following scandals that tarnished the government’s reputation internationally. Yet the strategy failed to translate into electoral gains, with the PN suffering heavy electoral defeats.

This time the Opposition recalibrated its approach. Rather than concentrating on corruption, the PN focused on practical concerns affecting daily life. Health, transport and energy became central pillars of its campaign, with the party arguing that Labour had failed to cope with the pressures created by population growth and economic expansion over the past 13 years.

The PN also attempted to present itself as the party willing to rethink Malta’s economic model. Leader Alex Borg repeatedly argued that economic growth should not simply be measured by statistics such as GDP or low unemployment but should also take into account quality of life, infrastructure pressures and sustainability.

Borg’s message throughout the campaign has essentially revolved around the idea that Malta needs a reset. He has sought to portray the country as exhausted by years of overdevelopment, congestion, and strain on public services, insisting that change is necessary not because the country is collapsing but because it risks heading in the wrong direction if current trends continue unchecked.

Prime Minister Robert Abela, on the other hand, has centred Labour’s campaign on continuity, experience and stability. Labour’s argument is that Malta has successfully navigated extraordinary international challenges under its leadership, including the pandemic, the economic shocks caused by the war in Ukraine, and broader instability linked to developments in the Middle East.

Abela has frequently presented Labour as the safe pair of hands capable of guiding the country through uncertain times. The government’s strongest arguments remain the economy, low unemployment and financial support measures introduced in recent years to cushion families and businesses from global inflationary pressures.

The contrast between the two leaders became particularly evident during the debates held so far. Abela projected caution and continuity, emphasising experience and stability. Borg adopted a more reformist tone, arguing that the country requires fresh direction and a new mindset.

The debates themselves have not radically altered the dynamics of the race, but they helped crystallise the central choice facing voters. Labour is effectively asking the electorate not to risk disrupting economic stability, while the PN is arguing that stability alone is insufficient if underlying problems continue to worsen.

One notable aspect of the campaign has been Labour’s defensive posture towards several PN proposals. Rather than focusing exclusively on promoting its own programme, Labour often dedicated considerable effort to criticising Opposition ideas. Politically, this can be interpreted in different ways.

One reading is that Labour believes the PN proposals resonate with sections of the electorate and therefore need to be neutralised quickly. Another is that Labour’s own electoral advantage allows it to campaign more cautiously, focusing on dismantling risks associated with change rather than aggressively selling a radically new vision.

The PN, meanwhile, has adopted a comparatively softer tone towards some government proposals. Borg himself acknowledged on several occasions that certain Labour measures were positive. This stood in sharp contrast to Abela’s position when asked whether he found anything worthwhile in the PN manifesto. The Prime Minister rejected the idea outright.

That difference in tone is also revealing. The PN appears eager to reassure moderate and floating voters that it is not opposing Labour for the sake of opposition. Labour, conversely, seems intent on portraying the PN programme as unreliable or dangerous.

As the campaign enters its final week, both parties now face the same challenge: mobilising voters who remain undecided or disengaged.

Core voters are unlikely to shift allegiance at this stage. Malta’s political loyalties remain deeply entrenched. The battle instead concerns the floating voter and the non-voter.

This is particularly important because the last general election registered the lowest turnout since Independence. Although an 85 per cent turnout would be considered extraordinarily high in many countries, in Malta it represented a historic decline. One in every seven eligible voters stayed home.

That statistic alarmed both major parties because Malta’s political system has traditionally relied on exceptionally strong electoral participation. Lower turnout may indicate disillusionment, frustration or a growing sense among some voters that neither party truly represents their aspirations.

The final week will therefore be dominated by attempts to energise these segments of the electorate. Both Labour and the PN understand that increasing turnout among sympathetic but disengaged voters could prove decisive, particularly in marginal districts.

There is also another important factor. Election campaigns often evolve in phases. The first weeks are dedicated to launching proposals and shaping narratives. The middle phase focuses on confrontation and direct comparison. The final days become more emotional and psychological, centred on momentum, fear, hope and urgency.

That is the stage Malta is now entering.

Labour will continue emphasising economic stability, experience and continuity. The PN will continue arguing that the country requires change and a reset in priorities. Smaller parties will continue trying to convince voters that dissatisfaction with the traditional parties should be translated into alternative representation rather than abstention.

After four weeks of campaigning, the broad contours of the election are now clear. The arguments have largely been exhausted, the strategies are visible and the political positioning has settled.

What remains uncertain is whether the final week will merely confirm the trends already indicated by surveys or whether it will produce enough movement among undecided voters to increase or narrow the gap.

In the end, Maltese elections are rarely only about manifestos or proposals. They are also about confidence, perception and trust. Over the next few days, both major parties will attempt to persuade the electorate that they alone can provide the future Malta needs – whether that future is defined by stability or by change.

 

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